Yemeni soldiers man checkpoint at a road leading a warring area between Shiite Houthi militias and armed tribal groups in north of Sana'a, Yemen, February 7, 2014. (Mohammed Hamoud/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)[/caption]Hamdan is a rural area around 19 miles (30 kilometers) northwest of Sana’a. Last month, it was the scene of heavy fighting between Houthi fighters and local tribesmen, and is perhaps the closest that Houthi fighters have got to Yemen’s capital. In the same thrust, the Houthis also took the historic towns of Thula and Kawkaban, both lying not more than 45 minutes’ drive from Sana’a. While government mediation has led to the Houthis withdrawing from several areas, there is a growing fear among some that the Houthis are planning an assault on the capital.
That fear seems misplaced. Any attack by the Houthis on Sana’a would be suicidal, and they know that. The recent advances can be seen as more of an attempt to establish “facts on the ground.” With Yemen in a state of flux and in the process of transforming into a federal state, the Houthis are attempting to show their strength and ability to control and mobilize mass support over a wide area.
However, the low likelihood of armed fighting in Sana’a does not mean that there are clear horizons ahead. Since Hamdan, there have been clashes between the army and the Houthis in Amran, a governorate north of Sana’a. Those clashes left at least six Houthis dead. The Houthis said they were merely trying to peacefully protest in Amran city, while the army said the protesters were armed.
This is only the latest in a series of clashes between the Houthis and various other parties that have been intensifying over the past few months. In Dammaj and Kitaf in Saada governorate, the Houthis eventually drove out Salafists after months of fighting. In Houth, located in Amran, the Houthis took on the Al-Ahmars, the leaders of Yemen’s most powerful tribe, the Hashid. They defeated them too, severely eroding the power of the Al-Ahmars. In Al-Jawf, the Houthis took on tribes linked to Al-Islah, a party linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and currently in the coalition government.
The Yemeni state, and with it President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, faces a tricky situation. Ideally, Hadi does not want to get involved in a mess that is widely seen as an inter-tribal affair. However, the Houthis are now uncomfortably close to the capital, and critics are asking if the state has simply given up on governing the areas north of Sana’a. A heated session in parliament following the latest clashes in Amran was dominated by MPs voicing their disenchantment at the president’s handling of the clashes and the ongoing Houthi encroachment. Hadi is also facing growing pressure from members of Al-Islah, his allies, to do something about the Houthis.
In particular, there has been fierce criticism of the government’s decision to deal with the clashes in Amran through a process of traditional tribal mediation that involves giving Kalashnikovs and cows to the Houthis. This has been derided as a sign of weakness and an indication that the government is abandoning its responsibilities as the leadership of a supposedly civil state and regressing to the role of a tribal sheikh.
The reaction on the street to the recent clashes is polarized. Many see the array of groups clashing with the Houthis in different areas as evidence that it is the Houthis who are itching for a fight and trying to eliminate rivals. This view is especially prevalent among supporters of Al-Islah. However, the declining popularity of Al-Islah in Yemen has meant that others are happy to see them, and any forces allied to them, defeated. The demonization of the Muslim Brotherhood across the region has also made it easier for the Houthis to frame their fight against Al-Islah affiliates as a fight against “terrorism.”
The ongoing clashes involving the Houthis and their opponents are often ignored by the international powers attempting to oversee Yemen’s transition. Yet it is these low-level conflicts that, if ignored, may undermine any hope that Yemen has of emerging from a tough few years. The Yemeni state cannot continue to claim they are in control of the country when armed groups flex their muscles with seeming impunity, and yet if they do confront them, they risk all-out war at a time when the state is extremely fragile. That is the conundrum that President Hadi now faces.
All views expressed in this blog post are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, The Majalla magazine.
