A billboard on a main street in Ankara thanks Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, reading: "We are grateful to you," on March 25, 2013, three days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apologized to Turkey over the death of nine Turkish citizens on board a Gaza-bound flotilla in 2010. ADEM ALTAN/AFP/Getty Images[/caption]
“There is peace between Israel and some Arab countries, but it is a cold one. The exchange in tourism is not that significant. This has not been the case between Turkey and Israel. Israelis were joking with me that come the weekend, Israel would be deserted as everyone leaves for Turkish Mediterranean resorts.”
This is what Onur Gökçe, Turkey’s first ambassador to Israel—who served in the days when Turkish–Israeli ties were at their peak in the 1990s—told me following an incident at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2009. At that meeting, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had slammed Israeli President Shimon Perez for the military operation launched against Gaza that winter.
Gökçe’s assertion shows how some ties between Israel and Turkey are mended quickly even after diplomatic relations take a nose dive, as was the case following the Mavi Marmara affair in which nine Turks in an aid flotilla bound for Gaza were killed by Israeli Naval Forces in May 2010. One part of their relationship that is quickly mended is tourism: although there was a sharp initial decrease in tourism figures following that incident, it will not come as a surprise to see an equally sharp rise in the arrival of Israeli tourists to Turkey following Netanyahu’s apology to Erdoğan last week.
It will still take some time for normalization to take place at the political level, and nobody expects relations to go back to what they were at their peak in the second half of the 1990s. That is the best that can be expected so long as Israel continues with its current stance on the Palestinian issue and Turkey pursues what Turkish diplomats call its ‘ostrich policy’ regarding the Arab uprisings.
Ironically, the deterioration of the situation in Syria was the main reason given by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his decision to call the Turkish prime minister to officially apologize for the Mavi Marmara killings, which he did on March 22.
Netanyahu’s statement, coupled with the recent exchange of fire between Syria and Israel, does raise the question of how Turkish–Israeli normalization may affect the fate of Bashar Al-Assad’s government. One would expect a convergence of interests under normal circumstances, since Israel’s longtime enemy is now being openly targeted by Turkey, which has sided with the Syrian opposition.
Yet the Middle East, with its complex geography, is not a place where circumstances are often normal. Both Turkey and Israel know what they do not want in Syria, but where they differ is in what they do want. “Israel does not know what it wants,” a Turkish diplomat told me recently. Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, Turkey and Israel have watched developments from opposing sides: Turkey prefers change, while Israel favors the status quo. Israelis preferred the devil they knew to the devil they did not. The ascent of Islamic movements, with the possibility of moderate groups being replaced by radicals, further increased their anxiety.
I met with a high-level Turkish foreign ministry official last year and asked him what they would have told the Israelis concerning the Arab Spring had political dialogue not been suspended. He said, “We would have told them that it is only natural for Islamic movements to come to power, but that does not necessarily mean that radicals will replace old dictators.”
This is what Israelis will be told once political dialogue resumes, but Israel will take some convincing because much of the political transformation occurring in the Middle East comes as bad news for the country. The emerging Arab governments will likely be more susceptible to public opinion, which will undoubtedly demand a tougher stance towards Israel. “When a new regime in Syria tells Israel that it cannot continue to keep the Golan Heights and enjoy drinking the wine it makes in the vineyards in Golan, this would have to be taken much more seriously than when the same was said by Bashar Al–Assad,” a Turkish official warned in a recent conversation.
In addition to the difference in their readings of the new Middle East, Israel’s current policy towards the Palestinian territories will also make it difficult to pursue friendly ties with Turkey at the political level. Leading up to the recent Israeli elections, many in Ankara were concerned about the downward spiral in Israeli policy that has damaged any opportunity for a fair and lasting peace. While election results have provided some room for optimism, it remains to be seen whether Israel will continue to hold on to the status quo, which US President Barack Obama deemed an unviable option during his recent trip to Israel. From now on, Turks will likely support this verdict and make clear to Israel that their current position is unsustainable. It is a message the Israelis will not be happy to hear.
