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It is not uncommon for foreign pundits to fall short in their understanding of developments in the Arab world. After all, the prism through which an individual views the other is often colored by cultural differences and varying value systems. And while the thirst for democracy is an essential element in the uprisings currently sweeping across Arab countries, it is not the sole driver. Other, more primal factors at play include deeply entrenched, and often antagonistic, ethnic and religious identities. It’s essential not to overlook the communal component, which has been the primary engine of Middle Eastern politics for centuries, or we may wake up to a rude surprise.
Take Syria for example, where one can no longer ignore the people’s thirst for freedom and their brave determination to achieve it. Yet one would be equally mistaken to ignore the communal dynamics governing the political equation, where an authoritarian regime dominated by religious minorities has ruled over a Sunni majority for over four decades. While some in the Allawite, Christian, and Druze communities also yearn for greater freedoms, many have chosen to remain silent for fear of retribution should the regime collapses.
Egypt is a case in point where, despite overwhelmingly supporting the revolution, the Coptic community has come under repeated attack since. Extremist elements in any society will try to take advantage of the ensuing power vacuum and turbulence involved with uprisings to further their agenda. As observers, we must remain mindful of the heavy costs associated with abrupt change and disorder.
Bahrain is perhaps the clearest example of an uprising where the communal element is a primary motivator. That does not mean that Bahrain is not in desperate need of reform, or that there is not the need for greater political inclusion for a vast element of Bahraini society. Bahraini Shi’as are deserving of a greater say in their country’s future. Giving the community a greater stake in their political system would be the best guarantee against Iranian meddling in the country’s affairs. But all being said, lets call a spade a spade. This is about identity politics first, and a struggle for liberal ideals a distant second.
Whether the events in Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, or elsewhere are evolutionary, rather than revolutionary, change is the best guarantee against sectarian violence rearing its ugly head. The onus however is not on those who have been oppressed and have finally risen, but on the archaic political systems that have not allowed for gradual political reforms, reforms that would foster citizenship, rather than centuries-old identity politics.
