Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (L) and then-Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül talk during a parliament session held in Ankara on August 20, 2007, as MPs convened to vote in the first round of presidential elections. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)[/caption]
There are many people who would agree with the description of Abdullah Gül as being the cool logic to the fiery emotion of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Erdoğan is rooted in the world of the general public, while Gül is more in tune with the upper classes. Similarly, while Gül’s time studying in the UK and working in Saudi Arabia broadened his horizons, Erdoğan is marked by his understanding of the man on the street.
So far these distinctions have allowed them to work together harmoniously, and they could continue to complement one another for decades to come. On the other hand, these differences could also prove to be the cause of a split in the future, particularly in upcoming presidential elections scheduled for this summer. For the first time the president will be elected directly by the public, instead of by parliament. Many in the opposition hope Gül and Erdoğan will go head to head to contest the position, although seasoned observers believe this is now unlikely.
People who have met Erdoğan have described him as being charismatic, popular, quick-witted, grumpy, quickly provoked and extremely close to the heartbeat of the street. Coming from humble beginnings, he is a self-made man who had to make his own way through the pitfalls of life to get to where he is today. It is said that Erdoğan sold simit, Turkish bread topped with sesame seeds, in Istanbul’s Kasımpaşa neighborhood in his teenage years. Unlike Erdoğan, Gül came from a middle-class background, and it is his higher education and career in economics that has greatly influenced his character.
A cable sent by a US diplomat in 2002 and released by WikiLeaks reveals that even among secular Kemalists, Gül is considered a tolerant individual who is very approachable. Another cable sent the same month shows him to be a man who is open to both his Western and Islamist interlocutors.
As far as Erdoğan is concerned, a diplomatic cable written on January 20, 2004, by the US ambassador in Turkey discloses that the ambassador felt that some of Erdoğan’s traits impacted on his ability to govern Turkey effectively. Some of the failings listed included excessive self-pride, unbridled ambition stemming from a belief he had been selected on a divine mission to lead Turkey, and a tendency towards authoritarianism.
These insights into the two men’s characters and backgrounds shed light on the differences that have so far allowed them to work as an effective team. There is a prevailing wisdom in Turkey that says the two men have both held the positions that best suit their personalities and that, broadly speaking, the situations of both men in the political establishment, the office they hold and the role they perform are in harmony with the personal characteristics and skills required to be either president or prime minister. This formula for success may be turned on its head, however, if both Gül and Erdoğan were to stand for the presidency.
After the events of Gezi Park and the subsequent extreme polarization that has taken place in Turkey, the much-debated idea of changing the parliamentary system to a presidential one has been abandoned—for now at least. This has taken the edge off the controversy surrounding a Gül–Erdoğan face-off for the president’s office, but it has not altogether gone away.
While there are many people who believe that Gül would not betray his old friend and long-standing colleague by running for president, many factions in the opposition want Gül to stand for election against Erdoğan. This is because he has recently, in their view, become one of the strongest critics of the government, as well as the most able to confront Erdoğan.
Gül has two key advantages over Erdoğan: First, he has made few enemies during his seven years as president and has consolidated the positive image the public has of him and how he handles matters. This has allowed him to maintain his base of popular support as well as adding a large segment of the nationalist and Kemalist opposition. According to an opinion poll conducted by Metropol, an agency considered to be close to the Turkish government, published in 2012, a battle between Gül and Erdoğan for the presidency would result in a 51 percent victory for Gül, with Erdoğan only polling 23 percent. There are those who would vote for Gül because they are convinced by his character, but many of those who would vote for the current president would do so because he is not Erdoğan.
There are further possibilities that have been advanced, including that of a job swap. The idea is that Erdoğan would be nominated as a presidential candidate after tendering his resignation as head of the government and head of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). Since Gül is not a parliamentary representative he cannot be leader of the government, and so would either be temporary party leader until the general election in 2015 and then become leader of the government or, alternatively, one of the AKP representatives would stand down as soon as Gül’s term was over, and then Gül would be elected to parliament in a by-election.
On the other hand, another scenario might emerge that would see Erdoğan stay in his position as prime minister after modifying the three-term rule in the AKP bylaws, while Gül would run for the presidency unchallenged by Erdoğan.
All views expressed in this blog post are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, The Majalla magazine.
