Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leaves a debate with Israeli President Shimon Peres called "Gaza: The Case for Middle East Peace" on January 29, 2009. (FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images)[/caption]There are two and a half world leaders, according to Yiğit Bulut, a former journalist and now a chief adviser to Erdoğan: “The first is Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the second is Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the half is US President Barack Obama.”
Bulut, who continues to publish his columns in a pro-government newspaper, penned an article about Turkey’s relations with the European Union only a week before Erdoğan’s scheduled visit to Brussels, where he is to meet the presidents of the European Council, Commission and Parliament.
There will be three power centers in the world, according to Bulut. The first will be the US; the second, Turkey; and the third will be a joint India-China-Iran axis. The disintegration of the EU is inevitable, in his opinion, and after the EU disappears it will join the major power center, Turkey.
The article was published at a moment when many were wondering whether the prime minister’s visit to Brussels on January 21 might end with a Davos-like incident— Erdoğan walked out of the 2009 Davos panel discussion after having a war of words about Gaza with Israeli President Shimon Peres.
Since his last visit, the prime minister and his party have moved away from Europe—before edging back again. This time around, Erdoğan is facing raised eyebrows in the EU over his recent efforts to increase government control of the judiciary. Brussels sent a message last week that Turkey’s accession talks are at stake if the prime minister doesn't change how he handles the ongoing corruption scandal.
Before December 17, when the corruption scandal broke, Erdoğan’s visit to Brussels was seen as an opportunity to capitalize on the recent thaw in relations. After all, the stagnation in entry talks stemmed in large part from the obstruction of France’s former president, Nicolas Sarkozy. With the election of François Hollande, Paris partially lifted its veto, and Turkey started talks on one additional chapter last month, a move that has shaken the dust in the membership negotiations.
So, after three and a half years, Erdoğan will visit Brussels. The trip was intended to give a new dynamism to relations and to erase the negative image created by Erdoğan’s harsh crackdown on peaceful protesters last summer.
Obviously, the days when Erdoğan was seen as the great reformer of Turkey are long gone. His growing authoritarianism has not gone unnoticed in European capitals, and so Europe is now faced with a dilemma. On the one hand, it wants to avoid further alienating Turkey with slow accession talks, but on the other it does not want to be seen consolidating the power of a leader increasingly seen to be undemocratic. “We can, to a certain extent, ignore corruption allegations, but we cannot turn a blind eye to moves that will erode the independence of the judiciary,” a European diplomat told The Majalla.
Erdoğan blames a “parallel state” operating within the judiciary and security forces for inciting the corruption cases, which he believes are part of a plan to topple the government on behalf of Fettullah Gülen, a Muslim cleric living in the United States, and his followers. While Erdoğan is surely permitted to try to abolish that “parallel” structure within state apparatus, the fact that his efforts push the limits of the rule of law is a major source of concern.
As a leader who does not easily accept criticism and who does not mince his words, the visit to Brussels could potentially end in a standoff between Erdoğan and European political figures. Erdoğan does not speak the language of diplomacy, Koray Çalışkan, a lecturer in political science at Bogazici University, wrote recently: “We have seen how he talks when his nerves are stretched. If Erdoğan finds the opportunity to ‘break away’ from Europe, he is, unfortunately, in a mood where he would seize it quite rapidly and with much enthusiasm.”
Emre Gönen, a political scientist specializing in European affairs, disagrees, however, arguing that neither Turkey nor the EU want a rupture in relations. Never in the past two decades have they needed each other more, he says. “The EU does not have a handy tool to intervene in the quagmire of the Middle East. The only instrument it has is Turkey,” he told The Majalla.
And while slamming the door to the EU would gain him temporary popularity in Turkey, it would only last a few months. The price he would have to pay for a small victory would be too high, as the resulting turbulence in the already fragile Turkish economy could cost Erdoğan important votes as the nation prepares for three elections in eighteen months.
While we wait for Erdoğan to arrive in Brussels, we can only speculate whether he will pay attention to his advisers—and what the consequences will be if he does not.
All views expressed in this blog post are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, The Majalla magazine.
