Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, meets with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon (not seen) on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly on September 26, 2013 in New York City. (Andrew Burton/Getty Images)[/caption]The Middle East is currently arrayed along pro- and anti-Iran lines. Iran itself lies in the former camp, together with parts of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. The Sunni Arab monarchies, Yemen, and Israel lie in the latter camp, while Oman retains its studied neutrality.
Outside actors also vie for influence. Russia, in particular, is protecting its interests in Syria (and growing its favor bank), while China is also using the situation to improve its position in the region without taking sides. The US is trying to constrain Iran in Syria (but is conscious of preventing Jihadists from coming to power on Israel’s north east marches.) The US is also trying to come to a deal with Iran over its nuclear program, in particular Iran’s (currently dormant) nuclear weapons program.
The Israelis and the Saudis have separately been trying to persuade the Russians to reduce their support for Iran and Syria. The same two countries have also been lobbying US politicians directly and indirectly, hoping to convince them to keep the pressure on Iran. Indeed, some suspect that the anti-Iran lobbies’ objective is to spoil any hope of negotiated settlement, leaving military strikes as the only ‘solution.’ (That airstrikes would solve nothing, merely delay the program, does not dampen the chicken hawks’ ardor for “bombs on target.”) Indeed, the pro-Israel lobbying group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, recently, if briefly, labeled “the 800-pound gorilla in the room,” was described as being “already at work pressing for military action against the government of Assad, fearing that if Syria escapes American retribution for its use of chemical weapons, Iran might be emboldened in the future to attack Israel.” As well as its on-going diplomatic and commercial lobbying, Saudi Arabia publicly expressed its disapproval at US inaction over Syria by refusing to speak in the General Assembly, and then again by declining the UN Security Council seat it had lobbied to achieve.
All these power-centers are well known and their lobby groups expected, looked for, and reported. Yet there is another power center that appears to be lobbying the Congress at arms’ length, indirectly using one of the most powerful—and nebulous—lobbies in the US. That power center is Iran itself, and its agent is big business.
It is unlikely that any money has passed, apart from anything else, which would breach the US sanctions regime. Similarly, there have probably been no formal meetings, merely public announcements for all to see (and hear). The Iranians mounted a carefully concerted charm offensive in the days leading up to the UN General Assembly, with interventions over broadcast, print and social media. The excitement and anticipation of a meeting, possibly a grand bargain and rapprochement almost reached fever pitch, then the whirlwind tour of affability gave substance to rumor when the tantalizing prospect of Americans being able to do business in Iran again was raised: “Iran studies direct flights to United States” ran one headline. The not-so-subtle subtext ran: Direct flights from the US to a rich company which is almost virgin commercial territory, now that most other countries’ companies have been driven out by US sanctions.
A few days later, as the direct talks at Geneva got underway, the US responded: “US hints at quick easing of sanctions if Iran yields in nuclear talks.” The prospects of an export-led recovery would be attractive in an America seeing sluggish job growth.
The financial dance continued as “Oil traders look to Iran’s market return,” as reported by the Financial Times. Worryingly for the Arab monarchies, the FT went on to explain: “A rapid return of Iranian barrels could push Brent below $100 a barrel and force Opec countries to confront the US shale revolution, which has been kept at bay by production shortfalls in Iran and elsewhere in the cartel.” Such a public exploration was soon reciprocated as the FT went on to relate that “Iran plans to convince international companies to invest in its oilfields by offering them more lucrative contracts as part of efforts to repair its battered economy and improve the Islamic Republic’s relations with the western world.” As a by-product, such an opening up of the Iranian petro-economy would also reduce the power of the conservative factions and, in particular, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, who had gained great economic influence during the tenure of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
“The love of money is the root of all evil” runs a verse in the Bible. The jovial Iranian clerics appear to have understood this principle and enlisted, unwitting and unpaid, the powerful capitalist forces of US big business in their campaign to convince the US to come to the table on better terms than before. Canny Iranians.
All views expressed in this blog post are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, The Majalla magazine.
