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There is something deeply unsettling about the recent events in Tehran this week.
In response to the alleged government-sanctioned sacking of the British embassy by an estimated 200 protestors in Tehran on Tuesday, the UK government has ordered Iranian diplomats to leave the country while announcing the closure of its embassy in Tehran.
"If any country makes it impossible for us to operate on their soil they cannot expect to have a functioning embassy here,” the Guardian reported British Foreign Secretary William Hague as saying Wednesday.
But with regional and international pressure building on Iran— last week Britain took the lead in imposing sanctions on Tehran’s central bank; Germany, France and the Netherlands have already recalled their diplomats from Tehran in response to the embassy attack; and on Thursday, the European Union expanded its sanctions against particular individuals and institutions in the country—it is hard to believe that the Ahmadinejad-led government would gain anything by escalating the situation further.
This has led some analysts to argue that the attack must have been carried out by elements in the government who oppose President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as an attempt to sabotage the Iranian government’s already highly strained relationship with the West.
Contradicting statements from the Iranian foreign ministry and parliamentary speaker, Ali Larijani, who is a sworn enemy of Ahmadinejad, support their argument: The foreign ministry reaffirmed its commitment to protecting diplomatic personnel and promised an investigation into the attack, while Mr. Larijani justified the attack as a natural response to “several decades of domination-seeking behavior of Britain.”
[inset_left]This has led some analysts to argue that the attack must have been carried out by elements in the government who oppose President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as an attempt to sabotage the Iranian government’s already highly strained relationship with the West.[/inset_left] What is not clear is to what extent it is in the interest of anyone in Iran, including the country’s religious leadership, that its relationship with the West deteriorates to the point of prompting a military attack on its soil. Yet, while the military option has been described as a last resort, the fact that diplomats from three western countries have left Iran in a matter of hours not only indicates a major escalation in the conflict with Iran over its nuclear program, but suggests that diplomatic relations could hit rock bottom in a matter of days.
Lending a strong justification to the increasing isolation of Iran by the international community over its nuclear program is the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) most recent report that provides compelling evidence that Iran aims to develop nuclear weapons.
Dina Esfandiary, a Research Analyst and Project Coordinator at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, told insideIran.org in a November interview: “The IAEA report cites evidence that points to nuclear weapon R&D [Research and Development]. This, along with the growth of enriched uranium stockpiles and progress in its ballistic missiles program, demonstrates that Iran wants the ability to produce a nuclear device. It makes it hard to believe that Iran’s program is for civilian purposes.”
She goes on to say that, “It is the aggregate weight of the information rather than the individual parts that demonstrates Iranian intent.”
