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Torn between America’s proclivity for stability and its values, Obama haphazardly wavered between supporting the existing political order and embracing the change on the street. A President, known more for his inspiring rhetoric than substantive policies, failed to articulate a way forward for the United States.
In a reckless act, Obama publicly pressed Hosni Mubarak to step down after decades of acting as a critical bulwark of America’s interests in the Middle East. This pivotal break underscored how little the President understood the gravity of the changes sweeping the region, and affirmed to America’s other long-standing partners in the region that Washington will not always be a loyal friend.
Instead of seeing these changes as America’s Suez moment, Obama became enchanted by the images streaming live on Al-Jazeera of protestors on the streets from Tunis to Manama calling for change. America’s future in Middle East once again became defined in terms of promoting and supporting democracy in the Arab world.
Obama failed to see that America’s friends are not among the thousands on the street calling for change, especially the well-organized religious and sectarian elements, but instead, in the regimes that are being torn away by these popular uprisings. The President never entertained the darker reality that unstable, autocratic regimes inimical to America’s national interests are the more likely outcome of the Arab Spring.
As the months have progressed, Obama belatedly has tempered his once vocal support for this Arab Spring, by notably backing away from criticizing the sectarian situation in Bahrain. But, Obama acted too late and has ensured that this moment in the Middle East is not America’s; instead it is for the spoilers of America’s position in the region.
The US, similar to Britain after Suez, faces a region turning away from it. As Henry Kissinger cautiously warned recently, “I don't have any specific nightmares, but I could imagine a growing irrelevancy of the United States in the region.” Without a strategy that takes into account this changing environment, the American moment in the Middle East will inevitably be in its twilight not its rebirth as the President so confidently has predicted. Obama must move in to fortify America’s allies in the region before it is too late, and help guide those states experiencing transitions down a path that encourages measured reform but not a departure from their alignment with United States.
